What is known?
The dated forecast, alert or observation and the limits of its evidence.
This page follows a climate forecast or disaster alert beyond its publication. It identifies where consequences may fall, which public services may be tested, who has authority to act and whether a response can be verified.
- Last editorial review
- 9 September 2026
- Current file
- Kenya's 2026 short rains
Where could it matter?
The places, populations, livelihoods and public services within its possible reach.
Who can act?
The national, county or regional institutions whose decisions become material.
What has been done?
A verifiable response, an unresolved decision or an openly stated absence of evidence.
Current watch · File 001
Seasonal forecastSource issued 31 August · reviewed 9 September 2026
Kenya's short rains: preparing for abundance as well as loss
Kenya's national outlook expects above-average rainfall across most counties during October–December 2026. For Garissa and much of the north-east, the forecast turns a wet season into a public-management question: how to capture its benefits while reducing the damage that intense rain can cause.
Rainfall
Above-average rainfall is expected in Garissa, Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo and most other counties. Heavy rainfall events may occur in several places.
Timing in the north-east
For Garissa, Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo and Marsabit, onset is expected in the second to third week of October, with cessation in the first to second week of December.
Compounding condition
Warmer-than-average temperatures are also predicted, with higher probabilities over the coast and parts of Garissa.
The outlook itself identifies opportunities for water recharge, pasture recovery and agricultural production. It also identifies flash floods, damaged water and sanitation systems, contaminated sources, disrupted access and greater disease risk. Preparation must therefore protect people while preserving the value of the rain.
- 01Evidence
- Kenya national seasonal outlook issued 31 August 2026
- 02Forecast
- Above-average rainfall expected across most counties; heavy events remain possible
- 03ASAL focus
- Garissa, Mandera, Wajir and Isiolo: onset expected in the second to third week of October
- 04Services exposed
- Water and sanitation · public health · livestock · roads · relief logistics
- 05Decisions before onset
- Drainage and water storage · surveillance · supplies · local warnings · access routes
- 06Response verified here
- None recorded so far; this field will change only against a dated public source
Automatic event feed
Recent natural events listed by NASA EONET
Use this feed to find events that warrant closer inquiry. EONET is a global event catalogue; Kenya-specific forecasts and warnings remain available from the national and regional sources below.
Contacting NASA EONET.
The current verified watch above and the links to Kenya's national, county and regional forecasting services remain available.
Provenance
Titles and times are retrieved from NASA's Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker and displayed as supplied. EONET does not establish local exposure, damage, climate attribution or institutional responsibility.
Read the EONET API documentation ↗Open the source directly
Current forecasts and alerts.
Signal → State adds institutional analysis; it does not replace the agencies responsible for issuing forecasts and alerts.
NATIONAL
Kenya 7-day forecast
The national short-range outlook published by Kenya's meteorological authority.
↗COUNTIESKenya county forecasts
County-level weekly, monthly and seasonal forecasts and advisories.
↗REGIONALICPAC Hazards Watch
Regional monitoring of drought, floods, heavy rain and related hazards across Eastern Africa.
↗GLOBALGDACS alerts
Global disaster alerts and coordination information for major sudden-onset events.
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